Large-Cap Stocks – Raging Bull https://ragingbull.com Fri, 27 Oct 2023 22:57:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.2.4 https://ragingbull.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/favicon.png Large-Cap Stocks – Raging Bull https://ragingbull.com 32 32 158338491 The Russell 2000 (TZA/TNA): Here’s How to Trade It https://ragingbull.com/large-cap-stocks/russell-2000-etfs/ https://ragingbull.com/large-cap-stocks/russell-2000-etfs/#comments Thu, 15 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://ragingbull.com/uncategorized/russell-2000-etfs/

Leveraged index ETFs could offer a wealth of opportunities since you’re able to capture higher returns if you’re right on the money. If you could figure out which way the index is headed, you could catch the trends and potentially make over 10% in a short period. In this post, we will go over how to trade two leveraged ETFs that relate to the Russell 2000 Index, the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) and the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA).

Although leveraged ETFs offer higher potential returns, keep in mind that leveraged ETFs are highly risky. If you don’t have an appetite for high risk, you should stick with regular ETFs. In general, many consider this asset class to be among some of the riskiest over the long term. That said, you should only consider trading these in the short term because that’s the way they’re designed.

What is the Russell 2000 Index?

The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap stocks found in the Russell 3000 Index.

How to Trade the Russell 2000 Index (TZA and TNA)

TZA and TNA track the Russell 2000 Index, both of which are leveraged ETFs’ underlying index. TZA aims to provide investment results corresponding to -300% of the Russell 2000 Index. On the other hand TNA seeks to amplify the daily performance of the Russell 2000. This means if the Russell 2000 rises by 1%, TZA will typically show a daily percentage change or -3%. Conversely, if the index closes up 1%, TNA should be up approximately 3%. The opposite is true when the Russell 2000 falls by 1%. In other words, if the index closes down 1%, TZA would close up around 3%, while TNA would close down 3%.

Think of it this way: if you’re bullish on the Russell 2000 index ETF, you would buy TNA. However, if you’re bearish on the index, you would buy TZA.

As you can see, both the TNA ETF and the TZA ETF have 3:1 leverage. This could significantly enhance your profits. Don’t forget that the profit potential is proportional to the risk.

Tracking the Russell 2000 Index Chart

If you have a high-risk tolerance and want to trade TNA and TZA, it’s extremely important you follow the underlying index. Ultimately, the Russell 2000 Index is the key driver behind the movements in these leveraged ETFs. The Russell 2000 Index performance is important to track when you are trading in this area. Now, you’ll have to understand the market well and have indicators, and a thesis behind why you are bullish or bearish on small-cap stocks.

It could be tricky to figure out a direction in the market, so you’ll need to create and trade a plan. For example, you might be bullish on small-cap stocks over the long term, but once you consider trading leveraged ETFs, you could consider both sides in the short term.

For example, let’s assume you noticed this technical pattern:

The 13 simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 30 (SMA) on the hourly chart, in early March. I would consider this a bullish pattern.

That said, I would consider buying TNA over the short term since I’m bullish on small caps.

Now, here’s TNA on the hourly chart:

Notice how both the Russell 2000 and TNA charts are nearly identical.

Here’s the hourly chart on TZA:

The chart is the inverse of TNA and the Russell 2000 Index.

Final Thoughts

Leveraged ETFs could be lucrative, but you’ll need to be able to handle the risk. Now, you’ll need to figure out a direction and a catalyst, whether it be technical or fundamental. Again, if you’re bullish on small-cap stocks, you could consider TNA. On the other hand, if you’re bearish on the Russell 2000 Index, you might consider a position in TZA. Keep in mind that you should only hold these for a short period of time because you could lose a lot more than anticipated over the long term.

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Jeff Bishop is lead trader at WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com and widely recognized as the Mensa Trader. He runs short-term trading strategies, using stocks, options and leveraged ETFs.

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How to trade the tech sector with leveraged ETFs https://ragingbull.com/large-cap-stocks/how-to-trade-the-techn-sector-with-etfs/ https://ragingbull.com/large-cap-stocks/how-to-trade-the-techn-sector-with-etfs/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://ragingbull.com/uncategorized/how-to-trade-the-techn-sector-with-etfs/

The tech sector is currently one of the top-performing groups in the exclusive Nasdaq 100 Index. The technology sector includes organizations that are concerned with the development, research, and sale of software and hardware. This sector contains well-known tech giants like Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as various other companies within the technology industry.

As technology continues to grow and expand, it’s not surprising that a lot more traders are looking to get into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the index. Over the long term, investing in tech stocks could generate high returns. However, if you don’t want to buy and hold stocks, tying up the bulk of your capital, you could look into leveraged ETFs. In this article, we discuss how to trade the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) and the ProShares UltraShort QQQ (SQQQ), which are directly related to the Nasdaq 100 Index’s daily performance.

Before continuing, though, it’s important to emphasize that leveraged ETFs are highly risky, and these are best left for those who have a high risk tolerance. These securities have a negative connotation and are considered some of the riskiest to hold over the long run. Although these instruments are highly risky, there is a way to “properly” trade them. Leveraged ETFs are typically designed to amplify an underlying asset’s performance over short periods, like one day. Therefore, if you’re bullish or bearish on an index, like the Nasdaq 100, you could consider a leveraged ETF or leveraged inverse ETF, respectively.

If you don’t want to buy and hold stocks, tying up the bulk of your capital, you could look into leveraged ETFs.

How to Trade the Tech Sector with SQQQ and TQQQ

The SQQQ and TQQQ both track the Nasdaq 100 Index, and if you’re looking to trade these leveraged ETFs, you’ll need to follow the index or the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ).

TQQQ’s primary objective is to provide amplified returns in relation to the Nasdaq 100. TQQQ is one of the most popularly traded leveraged ETFs in the United States and serves as a vehicle for those who are extremely bullish on QQQ or the tech sector. Here’s how TQQQ works: if the Nasdaq 100 Index rises 1%, TQQQ will generally rise 3%, and vice versa.

On the other hand, SQQQ is a leveraged inverse ETF and aims to provide three times the inverse of the Nasdaq 100 Index’s daily performance. In other words, if the underlying index falls by 1%, SQQQ should rise by 3%. The opposite is true if QQQ rises by 1%. With that in mind, you would consider SQQQ if you have bearish sentiment on the tech sector.

You can probably see how SQQQ and TQQQ could provide lucrative opportunities over the short term. But keep in mind your profit potential is proportionate to your assumed risk.

Potential Reasons to Trade SQQQ and TQQQ

You might consider SQQQ if major technology stocks have been weak or reported poor earnings.

One potential reason to trade SQQQ is sector rotation. If you notice there is some selling in multiple tech stocks, it could be a sector rotation and a reason to get long SQQQ. When there’s a sector rotation and the QQQ is near all-time highs, traders and investors might not want to buy at those levels. Consequently, there may not be enough buyers to keep prices propped up, potentially causing a sell-off in the Nasdaq 100 Index. This would benefit SQQQ.

Additionally, you might consider SQQQ if major technology stocks have been weak or reported poor earnings.

On the other hand, you might consider TQQQ if tech stocks have positive news or strong earnings. For example, the potential repatriation of overseas cash and lowered corporate taxes were catalysts that sent the Nasdaq 100 Index to all-time highs.

Another reason you may consider TQQQ and SQQQ is due to certain technical analysis indicators. For example, QQQ has been going straight up, and we’ve been waiting for a bearish signal to potentially give us the proper risk-reward. Here’s what we noticed in QQQ:

 

Now, before you consider buying SQQQ, we would want to see a bearish candle or setup. If and when there is a bearish candle, we’re looking for QQQ to test the support trend line. For those who don’t have access to an options account, SQQQ could serve as an alternative to placing a bearish bet on the market over the short term.

QQQ vs. SQQQ and TQQQ

As we mentioned earlier, TQQQ amplifies the Nasdaq 100 Index’s returns, while SQQQ goes up when the index falls. Think of SQQQ as a short QQQ.

Here’s a look at QQQ with SQQQ overlaid on the 5-minute chart:

 

You’ll notice that SQQQ (the blue line) amplifies the inverse of QQQ’s daily returns. Since QQQ was up 0.77%, SQQQ should be down approximately 2.31%. Keep in mind that the figure will not always be exact. For example, in the chart above, when QQQ was up 0.77%, SQQQ was down 2.36%.

Now, let’s take a look at TQQQ in relation to QQQ:

 

Notice TQQQ amplifies QQQ’s gains by approximately 300%. When QQQ was up 0.79%, TQQQ was up 2.47%. Now, this isn’t exactly three times the QQQ’s percentage change, which is primarily due to market participants bidding up the price of TQQQ, potentially placing a speculative bet that QQQ continues higher.

Final Words

TQQQ and SQQQ could provide short-term opportunities in the tech sector. However, TQQQ and SQQQ aren’t pure plays for tech stocks. The underlying index is comprised of approximately 60% of technology stocks, which is subject to change.

The Nasdaq 100 Index is market-cap weighted. In other words, companies with large market caps will have a higher portfolio weight. For example, Apple (AAPL), the largest company by market capitalization, has a portfolio weight of more than 10%. That said, if the top 10 holdings start to fall, it could cause a ripple effect and push the entire index lower, which would benefit SQQQ. Conversely, when the 10 largest holdings start to rise, TQQQ would benefit.

Again, you should only consider TQQQ and SQQQ for short periods since the compounding of daily returns could eat away your returns. Moreover, these leveraged ETFs are highly risky and should only be considered by those who have an appetite for risk.

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How to Trade Volatility in any Environment (XIV/TVIX) https://ragingbull.com/large-cap-stocks/trade-volatility-any-environment/ https://ragingbull.com/large-cap-stocks/trade-volatility-any-environment/#respond Wed, 17 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0000 https://ragingbull.com/uncategorized/trade-volatility-any-environment/

How to Trade Volatility in any Environment (XIV/TVIX)

 

Volatility, or vol, is often said to have mean-reverting properties. In other words, when volatility is extremely high or extremely low, it tends to move back to the long-term mean level. With vol nears historic lows, some might think it’s time to buy volatility, thinking it could revert back to the mean. However, you can look at that both ways. If the S&P 500 continues higher, vol would remain low and the short trade could still be profitable.

Ready to learn how to trade volatility? In this post, we’ll be looking at how the CBOE VIX works, strategies for trading in volatility (whether implied or actual), and how exchange-traded products (like UVXY) with exposure to the VIX allow traders to play both sides in the short term.

What Does It Mean to Trade on Volatility?

Trading on volatility means you’re trading the volatility of the price of a stock or security rather than trading on the price of the asset itself. This means that you could trade the values of different equity indices. However, trading the volatility of these indices means you’re trading the future expected volatility of an index.

Any stock or asset whose price fluctuates experiences volatility, which means you’re simply purchasing and selling the future expectations of the stock’s volatility. So rather than predicting the actual price movements of a stock, when you trade volatility, your main concern will be how many price movements, whether up or down, will occur.

How Does Trading on Volatility Work?

The most common method volatility traders use is stock options. Options values can be affected by several different factors, but essentially, these values are the expected volatility of the underlying asset into the future. Additionally, options that you buy and sell on an equity index with higher expected volatility tend to be more valuable than options on an equity index that have less expected volatility. Ultimately, options trading is one of the best ways to get exposure to the volatility index.

Volatility Price: Implied Volatility vs. Actual Volatility

Volatility encompasses the inherent risks of trading in the stock market. Volatility gives the perception of risks that are securitized within the time-value of an option‘s price. There are two main types of volatility pricing that an index strikes. For instance, the CBOE VIX measures implied volatility and actual volatility. Implied volatility means you’re working with options that encompass the expected future volatility, which is reflected in the options market. Actual volatility refers to the variable prices of the underlying market.

The VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN provides short exposure to the CBOE Short-Term VIX.

On the other hand, the VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX Short-Term ETN provides leveraged exposure to the VIX.

What Is the CBOE Volatility Index?

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a tool that measures the expectations of the volatility of the stock market. This measurement gets reflected in S&P 500 options prices, and it’s the complex mean of various put and call options prices, strike prices, and expiration dates. Call options allow holders the right to buy underlying assets at specific prices, usually the strike price, on or prior to specific dates. These dates are the assets’ expirations dates. Put and call options can both increase in value, especially when the market’s expected volatility of the underlying assets increases.

Measuring Volatility

You can measure the volatility of any underlying security with the Volatility Index (VIX) of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). Traders use the VIX to calculate the implied volatility of different options within the S&P 500 index over the course of a year. High readings of the VIX mean higher volatility, while lower readings mean less implied volatility over that one-year time period. So when the VIX rises, the S&P typically drops.

Volatility Trading Strategies

As you start trading volatility, you’ll find that certain strategies can help you get the most from your trades. Here, we’ll cover several strategies for options trading and trading volatility so you can understand when holding volatility trades is to your advantage and when it’s not. Generally, the most ideal strategy for trading volatility is to maximize your exposure to both implied and actual volatility. Here are several more to help you get started trading volatility:

  • One strategy for trading volatility is to short trade the asset/stock, commonly called “shorting”. In this case, you wouldn’t hold on to the volatility trade for very long. Instead, you would want to trade the volatility product as quickly as possible so you can capitalize on the fluctuations in price.
  • Establish a gamma positive or negative volatility position. In other words, you’re trading implied volatility against actual volatility. A gamma positive position would mean collecting on your trades, while a gamma negative simply means ensuring your hedging strategies result in your collections outweighing any loss.
  • Consider trading with leveraged and inverse ETNs, as they are specifically designed to provide you with exposure to their underlying indices and to amplify the underlying assets’ performance.

You may have read what leveraged ETFs are and how they could be highly risky, and we need to constantly emphasize this. Although leveraged and inverse ETNs are risky over the long term, you can confidently consider them in the short term because this is how they were designed. Inverse ETNs and ETFs provide exposure corresponding to -1X their underlying indices, while leveraged ETNs/ETFs amplify the underlying asset’s performance over one day, typically.

Keep in mind that to trade volatility is risky, especially if you’re shorting. Going long means you’re willing to lose a substantial amount of your investment in the event volatility spikes significantly.

Volatility You Can Trade On

The most volatile markets can often experience higher-than-average daily price movements. Conversely, other volatility markets may only move several points in any given day. These markets and products on the VIX are generally a good place to start when you get into volatility trading:

  • The S&P 500 VIX short-term futures ETNs or VXX
  • The S&P 500 VIX mid-term futures ETNs or VXZ
  • VIX short-term futures ETFs or VIXY
  • VIX mid-term futures ETFs or VIXM

There are many underlying assets, stocks, or securities that can fall into one of these volatility markets. Depending on your trading approaches, there are several you don’t want to hold on to for longer than necessary.

Don’t Hold These Volatility Instruments for Extended Periods

R emember, volatility trading can only provide investment results corresponding to the CBOE ST VIX’s daily performance. If you hold UVXY or VXX futures for an extended period of time, the returns will likely differ from your expectations. For example, if the CBOE ST VIX is up 10% in 5 trading days, don’t expect the S&P 500 to be up 20%.

It’s important to understand that most volatility instruments like futures, ETNs, and options tend to lose their value quickly when the stock market is rising or at a calm point. This means that it doesn’t always pay to buy and hold volatility for very long. A good example of different underlying instruments to avoid holding on to include ETNs, ETFs, and long-term futures.

For instance, the S&P 500 VIX short-term futures ETN (VXXP)is one such instrument that, if you purchase on the exchange, you won’t want to hold for very long as this index tends to swing wildly, meaning the expected short or near-term volatility may be more valuable than if you hold on to it.

Another underlying instrument you don’t want to hold too long is the VXX, which follows an index that monitors the price of several short-term VIX futures. You would trade in VXX in this case by maintaining a continuous one-month exposure period to volatility, meaning you would be repeatedly trading in first-month futures so you can purchase second-month futures contracts.

The ETF UVXY is a leveraged fund that keeps track of the short-term volatility and is a commodities pool that provides exposure to the short-term VIX futures. However, UVXY doesn’t deliver the leveraged returns on the VIX index, but rather on front and second-month futures contracts. Usually, the UVXY trades large volumes, which means a very short holding period for investors. Because of the high expense ratios, it’s best not to hold UVXY for long.

When volatility remains low and trends for an extended period, UVXY benefits, and that’s how some traders banked last year.

Final Thoughts

Although the short volatility trade has been working, it could eventually come to an end. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t trade volatility. In fact, you might consider VXX in times of high volatility and UVXY in times of low volatility. As you continue learning how to trade volatility index, keep researching these two ETNs. You could play both sides and increase your trading opportunities.

Jeff Bishop is Head of Options Trading at Raging Bull.

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